良性前列腺增生继发急性尿潴留的危险因素分析及预测模型构建

doi:10.19558/j.cnki.10-1020/r.2021.01.014

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摘要 目的: 探讨良性前列腺增生（BPH）继发急性尿潴留（AUR）的危险因素,并构建预测模型。方法: 回顾分析2016年1月—2018年5月收治417例BPH患者的临床资料,根据是否继发AUR分为AUR组（111例）和非AUR组（306例）。采用多因素Logistic回归分析筛选BPH患者发生AUR的危险因素,建立Logistic预测模型,用ROC曲线评价预测模型的效能。结果: 417例BPH患者中1年内AUR发生率为26.62%。AUR组患者国际前列腺症状评分（IPSS）、前列腺体积（PV）、膀胱前列腺突出程度（IPP）、最大尿流速、膀胱顺应性以及血前列腺特异抗体（PSA）水平均显著高于非AUR组（P<0.05）。Logistic回归分析表明,IPSS、PV、IPP值以及血清PSA水平增高是BPH继发AUR的高危因素（P<0.05）。根据Logistic回归分析获得预测模型为P=1/1+EXP（30.061—0.424×IPSS—0.110×PV—0.944×IPP—1.259×PSA）,预测模型的ROC曲线下面积为0.909。结论: IPSS、PV、IPP值和血清PSA水平增高是BPH继发AUR的高危因素,构建的预测模型对AUR发生具有较好评估价值。

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	仝姗姗
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关键词 ：急性尿潴留, 良性前列腺增生, 高危因素, 预测模型

Abstract：Objective: To investigate the risk factors of acute urinary retention （AUR） in patients with benign prostatic hyperplasia （BPH） and establish a prediction model. Methods: 417 patients with BPH were retrospectively enrolled in this study, including 111 patients with AUR and 306 patients without AUR from January 2017 to May 2018. The risk factors of AUR in BPH patients were analyzed by multivariate Logistic regression analysis. The logistic prediction model was established according to the results of multivariate Logistic regression analysis. The effectiveness of the prediction model was evaluated by ROC curve. Results: The incidence of AUR among 417 patients with BPH within 1 year was 26.62%. The levels of IPSS, PV, IPP, Q_max, BC, and PSA in AUR group were significantly higher than those in non-AUR group （P < 0.05）. Logistic regression analysis showed that elevation of PV, IPSS, IPP, and serum PSA was the risk factors for AUR in patients with BPH （P < 0.05）. According to Logistic regression analysis, the prediction model was P = 1/1+EXP （30.061—0.424×IPSS—0.110×PV—0.944×IPP—1.259×PSA）, and the area under the ROC curve of the prediction model was 0.909. Conclusion: The elevation of PV, IPSS, IPP value and serum PSA level was risk factors of BPH secondary AUR. The constructed predictive model has good evaluation value for the occurrence of AUR in BPH patients.

Key words： acute urinary retention benign prostatic hyperplasia high risk factors prediction model

收稿日期: 2020-01-07

通讯作者: 常艳华,290072333@qq.com

引用本文:

仝姗姗, 毛婷婷, 张莹莹, 常艳华. 良性前列腺增生继发急性尿潴留的危险因素分析及预测模型构建[J]. 微创泌尿外科杂志, 2021, 10(1): 61-64.
TONG Shanshan, MAO Tingting, ZHANG Yinyin, CHANG Yanhua. Analysis of high risk factors of acute urinary retention in patients with benign prostatic hyperplasia and establishment of prediction model. JOURNAL OF MINIMALLY INVASIVE UROLOGY, 2021, 10(1): 61-64.

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http://journal20.magtechjournal.com/Jwk_zgmnwk/CN/abstract/abstract1656.shtml 或 http://journal20.magtechjournal.com/Jwk_zgmnwk/CN/Y2021/V10/I1/61

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